'Tubtrumping' Our Way To November

He Gets Back Down And He Gets Up Again. That Is His Superpower

If you’re an older millennial like me, you remember the song “Tubthumping” by Chumbawumba. The 1997 hit by the British anarchist band is famous for its refrain, “I get knocked down, but I get up again; you’re never going to keep me down.”

The song was in my head all last night after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. The image of Donald Trump blooded after a bullet whizzed by his head, being helped to his feet by the Secret Service and raising a defiant fist would, let’s face it, be iconic if it happened to a social justice hero or pro-democracy activist in a fascist nation. We’d see posters of it all over Brooklyn if this had happened to, say, the late Russian dissident Alexei Navalny. We can’t ignore that this image will inspire and motivate those who believe his MAGA movement is a force for good in this country.

And we’re being ignorant if we don’t believe this will affect the elections in November. The political problem here has nothing to do with whether or not the shooting was a left-wing activist radicalized by left-wing messaging about Trump being a potential dictator or threat to democracy. It doesn’t appear at this early stage that this was the motive.

The problem is twofold. One is that this makes it harder to prosecute the case against Trump. Since the shooting, Republicans have been blaming the rhetoric from the Democratic side – rhetoric that compares Trump to a fascist dictator and declaring him a threat to democracy. While I believe all that is true, what is also true is that this type of rhetoric creates a situation where mentally unstable people might feel there is no other choice but to resort to violence, especially when facing the reality of an electoral defeat. The political rhetoric has become piping hot in the last decade, but much of that came from Trump himself. Democrats raised the temperature in response. It’s impossible to tone it down now, as neither side will disarm. There is no advantage to it.

Democrats are running with perhaps the worst political headwinds in 20 years. Inflation, the migrant crisis, and the perception of crime and disorder in the cities are hamstringing them from being able to run on the successes of the last four years. Trump being an exponential threat is their best campaign message. That case has become more challenging to make, not only because it would seem inappropriate to the punditry but also because swing voters might now see it in poor taste, and the message won’t get across.

The second problem is that this incident shows Trump as the personification of the refrain from “Tubthumping.” He gets knocked down, and he keeps getting up again. The enduring image of Donald Trump getting out of another mess will reinforce the idea that Trump is “Teflon.” It will strengthen the belief that he cannot be defeated. That dynamic is his strongest attribute. His inability to be defeated will either win over supporters or force opponents into submission. He is “Tubtrumping” us.

Americans respect someone who can persevere, even if they’re not considered a good guy, and Trump’s response to the shooting showed that. Preserving, for some people, would lead to them rethinking whether the person is terrible. That’s why he and his supporters, like Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, lean heavily toward the idea that God protected him.

I’ve said before that I think, despite his unpopularity, most Americans secretly love Donald Trump, even if they say they don’t. He is a window into a world where there is no accountability. It’s like that famous running skit you often see in comedies where someone does something disruptive or criminal and, when punished, responds with a quip, “I’m sorry, I thought this was a free country.” Americans are free, but they often don’t *feel* like free people. This is especially true in the post-cancel culture world. Before Trump, there was a real fear among segments of the population that they might let some inappropriate or offensive comment slip out as a joke or as a misunderstanding and pay dearly for it. South Park dedicated an entire episode to this dynamic when Randy Marsh, Stan’s liberal-coded dad, was compelled to utter a racial slur on national television, and his life was destroyed. The culture that erupted in which language was policed and traditional actions were frowned upon became a running gag. We mocked the “old days” as racist, sexist, and culturally backward. Still, tens of millions of Americans quietly waited in the wings for a modern-day Archie Bunker to rescue them from the shackles of liberal-enforced civility.

Donald Trump was that white knight – every pun intended. It isn’t even that Trump doesn’t care who he offends and doesn’t police his own actions and words; it’s that he suffers zero consequences for any of it. He always comes out the winner. Even his 34 felony convictions on May 30, which many Democrats, including myself, thought would be the beginning of the end, were neutered by the Supreme Court ruling the president has some immunity to criminal prosecution. At the very least, it delayed any possibility that Trump may face accountability on his more severe felony charges connected to his retaining of sensitive documents at Mar-a-Largo and his connection to the January 6th Capitol riots.

Elections are won on vibes, not policies. In the aftermath of Saturday’s attempt on Trump’s life, the vibe is Trump is a survivor and a fighter. He is, to quote the motto of House Martell, the Dornish noble family in Game of Thrones, “Unbowed, unbent and unbroken.” For the tens of millions of Americans who felt like they spent the Obama era chained up by the “liberal elite,” it’s inspiring and motivating. Finally, someone the “liberal elite” can’t break and someone who can break them.

Juxtapose that with the Democrats' image of a frail older man who struggles to hold a thought. The Republican nominee looks like the Alpha who can’t be defeated and is slaying the dragons of the near past; the Democratic nominee looks like a defeated older man, carrying a dying liberal movement to its grave.

It isn’t even that Biden himself can easily be swapped out for a better Democrat. The party doesn’t necessarily have one. Vice President Kamala Harris would run a more vibrant campaign, but she isn’t going to out-Alpha Donald Trump – no one will.

From top to bottom, the Democratic Party is made up of technocratic and academic figures who come across as boring and elitist. The best messenger in the party is Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who, despite being a Midwestern veteran, is the son of a college professor who speaks multiple languages. Peter Paul Montgomery Buttigieg can land a good quip with sass, but if a jury or a bullet can’t take Trump down, a witty clapback won’t.

Biden won in 2020 because he was the least among them like that – a scrappy Irishman from a working-class background who had no filter. Biden is too old and compromised by the unpopular Left to continue projecting that image. No one can stand in for him who is ready to take on Trump.

This isn’t the fault of the party establishment, but rather, it’s the fault of the party’s electorate. A coalition of wine moms, college-educated eggheads, and busybody aunties is never going to look cool alongside the coalition of hunters, cage fighters, race-car drivers, and military enthusiasts. Democrats have candidates who can wrestle control of the “cool” factor from the right. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore was a Captain in the 82nd Airborne; Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona was a Marine. The blue-eyed, bearded bear is now the frontrunner to replace kooky Kyrsten Sinema in the Senate. Texas Congressman Colin Alred was an NFL Linebacker. New Jersey Rep. Mikie Shirell is a former fighter pilot, Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger is a former spy, and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington State loves fixing transmissions. None of these people are viable candidates for 2024, and while they may be feasible in 2028, that would require us to get through another four years of Trump.