NYC Downballot Primary Roundup
A Look At What Else Is On The Ballot On Tuesday
Tuesday’s primary race in New York City is more than just for mayor.
Even though the race at the top of the ballot, now seen as a two-way battle between Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani of Queens and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, has dominated everyone’s attention, there are primaries for the two other citywide offices and many City Council seats as well. Winners in these races will be a significant part in determining the trajectory of the next four years in the city, regardless of who wins the mayoral primary. Let’s go around the boroughs and take a look at them:
Citywide
City Comptroller
Before the mayoral race became competitive, the race to replace Brad Lander, who is running for mayor, as City Comptroller was seen as the biggest proxy battle between establishment moderate Democrats and the progressive left. Lander won this race narrowly in 2021, which is the only significant win the left has had since their political fortunes turned south in New York City following the pandemic.
Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine decided to forgo reelection to run for the city’s top finance job. He’s facing City Councilman Justin Brannan from Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, and State Sen. Kevin Parker, who represents Flatbush, Brooklyn.
The race, however, is seen as being a two-way one between Levine and Brannan. Levine, who is the choice of more moderate Democrats and the establishment, has the edge, as polls have shown him significantly ahead of Brannan. However, the recent surge by Mamdani, who is backing Brannan, means an upset isn’t out of the question. Early voting turnout in Levine’s native Upper West Side also might give him an edge.
The office, along with Public Advocate, is seen as a stepping stone to the mayorality. Before Lander, fellow mayoral candidate Scott Stringer held the job, and before him, it was held by now-State Sen. John Liu, who ran for mayor in 2013.
Public Advocate
The office of Public Advocate is the most controversial of the three citywide offices. It is the reincarnation of the office of President of the City Council, a member of the New York City Board of Estimates, a powerful body once responsible for numerous areas of municipal policy and decisions, including the city budget, land-use and water rates and whose existence was struck down by the US Supreme Court in 1989.
The Public Advocate is the city’s ombudsman. Republicans hate it and have called to abolish it. As a result, they rarely even nominate a candidate for the office. The role also serves as almost a “vice president of the city” because its primary function is to preside over and break ties in the City Council. It is also a stepping stone to a higher office. Bill de Blasio and Letitia James were both Public Advocates who went on to become mayor and state Attorney General, respectively.
Incumbent Jumaane Williams is running for a second and last full term. He was elected in a special election to replace James in 2019 and reelected in 2021. He’s facing Assemblywoman Jenifer Rajkumar of Woodhaven, Queens, who is widely known in the city for often being at the side of Mayor Eric Adams and for consistently wearing a red dress, which has become her signature style.
Financial advisor Marty Dolan, who ran a primary challenge against Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez in 2024, is also running.
Williams should win easily, but Rajkumar notably got some significant endorsements, including from U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna and from several Queens Democrats who share her district, like State Sen. Joe Addabbo and Assemblyman David Weprin. The police union has also endorsed her.
Boroughs
Manhattan Borough President
Levine’s decision to run for Comptroller left an open race for borough president. Three Democrats are running: State Senator Brad Holyman-Sigal of Chelsea, Councilman Keith Powers of Stuyvesant Town, and Calvin Sun, a doctor who became well-known for documenting the COVID-19 Pandemic during its peak in New York.
Powers and Sun have cross-endorsed each other, and Powers has the support of key unions, including District Council 37 and the Teamsters, as well as U.S. Representatives. Adriano Espillait and Nydia Velazquez. However, Holyman-Sigal also has key labor support from unions like SEIU 1199 and US Reps. Dan Goldman and Jerry Nadler. Assemblyman Keith Wright, the chair of the Manhattan Democratic Party, has also backed Hoylman-Sigal.
The Working Families Party sat out this race. Hoylman-Sigal probably has enough establishment support to win, but this could end up being a real close one, especially with the high turnout Manhattan has seen in early voting.
Bronx Borough President
Incumbent Bronx Borough President Vanessa Gibson is facing a primary from term-limited councilman Rafael Salamanca. While Gibson has the support of the Democratic establishment and the Working Families Party, Salamanca has garnered the backing of former U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a favorite of the left who some progressives want to see challenge U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres, whose district is in the Bronx, in next year's primary. Salamanca also has the backing of former Bronx Borough President and mayoral candidate Fernando Ferrer.
Gibson will likely win this, especially since turnout in the early vote hasn’t been great in Salamanca’s South Bronx base. Still, if they do turn out on Election Day—and there is a competitive primary for Salamanca’s seat, more on this later—an upset could be in the making.
Brooklyn Borough President
This race will likely be an easy win for incumbent Antonio Reynoso, who is being eyed for a future citywide office. Reynoso is facing only one challenger, activist and 2021 candidate Khari Edwards, who has the support of District Council 37 and a few Black state legislators in Central Brooklyn.
Reynoso is a favorite of the progressive left, and the Mamadani campaign is likely to do well in Brooklyn. That should help Reynoso win handily.
One interesting thing to note here is where Brooklyn’s substantial Jewish vote, likely to go to Cuomo, will go in this race. Do they stick with Reynoso, the incumbent, as they often do in these races, or do they take out their angst at the left on him and vote for Edwards?
Council District 1
MANHATTAN -
(Financial District, Battery Park City, Chinatown, TriBeCa)
There are only a handful of Council incumbents at risk of losing primaries this year. One of them is Christopher Marte.
The 1st Council District, centered in Lower Manhattan, encompasses the Financial District, Civic Center, and Chinatown, and has seen many hard-fought primaries recently. Housing has dominated the discussion here since new developments and office conversions into residential became commonplace in Lower Manhattan in the 2010s. The district encompasses some incredibly diverse communities, ranging from the affluent and modern FiDi and Battery Park City areas to the more historic and lower-density TriBeCa, Chinatown, Little Italy, and Two Bridges. Much of New York University is also in the district.
Marte nearly ousted the previous incumbent, former Councilwoman Margaret Chin, in 2017 and might have beaten her if the current ranked-choice voting system existed then. He won the seat handily in 2021 and has since become a major NIMBY - the name given to opponents of development - member of the Council. He was the only member of the entire Manhattan delegation to vote against Mayor Eric Adams’ “City of Yes” plan last year.
Marte is facing Jess Coleman, a member of Community Board 1, who has the backing of at least one local Democratic club and some pro-development organizations. Two other community board members, Elizabeth Lewinsohn and Eric Yu, are also running. Lewinsohn has the backing of the teachers’ union.
Marte, who has the support of the Working Families Party, is the favored candidate. However, the margin he wins by—and the potential for an upset—will depend on how well Mamdani performs here. Lower Manhattan is a historic battleground between leftist and establishment Democrats.
Council District 2
MANHATTAN
(Alphabet City, East Village, Gramercy)
The primary to succeed Carlina Rivera in the East Village-based second district kicked off with a Saturday Night Live skit. John Mulaney, playing Assemblyman Harvey Epstein, parodied one his ads poking fun at his unfortunate name.
Epstein isn’t related to the notorious sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. Still, in an ironic twist, his primary opponent is tied to a sex scandal of his own - former Congressman Anthony Weiner, who relocated from Queens to Manhattan and is trying to reboot his long-dead political career.
Epstein is the establishment choice, and he also has the support of the Working Families Party and organized labor.
Those who do not want to vote for Epstein or Weiner have other choices. Sarah Batchu, a member of Community Board 3, is running with the support of former U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney, and Andrea Gordillo, the board’s chairwoman, is also running and has the backing of the progressive establishment. A fifth candidate, Allie Ryan, is also in the race.
While Epstein and Weiner have the name recognition, Gordillo has the district leaning on her side. If not for ranked choice voting, I’d rate Gordillo as a favorite. Still, Epstein and Batchu have just enough establishment support and name recognition to end up high enough in voters’ rankings to cross 50 percent.
Council District 3
MANHATTAN
(Chelsea, Greenwich Village)
Incumbent Councilman Erik Bottcher shouldn’t have much trouble here. He’s only facing one opponent, housing advocate Jacqueline Lara, but nearly every local organisation has backed Bottcher for reelection.
He should win the final term easily.
Council District 4
MANHATTAN
(Stuyvesant Town, Midtown, Murray Hill)
The Fourth District features a real barn burner of a race. The district is being vacated by Councilman, and former high school classmate of mine, Keith Powers1, who is running for Manhattan Borough President.
In the race are teacher Vanessa Aronson, who has the backing of the progressive establishment and the Working Families Party; lawyer Faith Bondy, who has the endorsement of several unions; and the sentimental favorite, Virginia Maloney, daughter of former U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who also served on the City Council representing much of the same area in the 1980s when Virginia was born.
Maloney is backed by her mother and former Council Speaker Gifford Miller. Rachel Storch, a former Missouri state legislator, is also running, as is former district leader Ben Wetzler, who some pro-development organizations back. US Marine veteran Luke Florczak is also a candidate.
Ranked choice makes the race somewhat unpredictable, and Storch and Bondy cross-endorsed each other, which could matter in a close race. Aronson is the slight favorite here, but the vibes genuinely point toward Tossup.
Council District 5
MANHATTAN
(Upper East Side, Roosevelt Island)
Councilwoman Julie Menin is a favorite to be the next Speaker of the Council, but she is facing a primary from Collin Thompson in the “Silk Stocking” council district - one of the wealthiest in the city.
Menin is likely to win easily, but if she underperforms, it could hurt her chances at the speakership.
Council District 7
MANHATTAN
(Morningside Heights, Hamilton Heights)
Councilman Shaun Abreu is running for a second term and is expected to win easily. Still, he’s facing a stiff challenge from Edafe Okporo, an advocate for migrants who is running with the support of several progressive organizations, including Bernie Sanders’ Our Revolution.
A strong showing by Mamdani, bolstered by the recent overreach on immigration by the Trump Administration, could help Okporo here, but an upset is improbable.
Council District 8
MANHATTAN/BRONX
(East Harlem, Mott Haven)
One of the few districts that spans two boroughs, the 8th District was once represented by Melissa Mark-Viverito, the Council Speaker during Bill de Blasio’s first term. Mark-Viverto’s successor, Diana Ayala, is term-limited.
The district encompasses East Harlem and the Mott Haven section of the Bronx, with a significant Puerto Rican population. Development and gentrification have also been issues, as new luxury developments have popped up along the Mott Haven coastline. The impending construction of Phase Two of the Second Avenue Subway also runs through the district.
The favorite appears to be Ayala’s chief of staff, Elsie Encarnacion, who has the support of Ayala as well as the Working Families Party. Other candidates include Bronx Community Board 1 Chair Clarisa Alayeto, who could win support on the Bronx side of the river; Federico Colon, former chief of staff to former Harlem Councilman Adam Clayton Powell, Rosa Diaz, secretary for Manhattan Community Board 10; Nicholas Reyes, a state Democratic committee member; former Assembly candidate Wilfredo Lopez and Raymond Santana, who is one of the Central Park Five - the five men wrongfully convicted of the brutal rape of Tricia Meili in Central Park in 1989.
Yusef Salaam, another one of the five, was elected to the adjacent Harlem-based Council district in 2023, which inspired Santana to run.
Council District 10
MANHATTAN
(Washington Heights, Inwood)
Councilwoman Carmen de la Rosa is running again in this Washington Heights-based district and is facing a primary from former Assembly candidate Francesca Castellanos.
De la Rosa has the support of the Working Families Party and nearly every labor union and should easily win.
Council District 11
BRONX
(Riverdale, Woodlawn)
Councilman Eric Dinowitz had to wait until round six to win the 2023 primary for this district in the affluent, heavily Jewish, northwest Bronx. For that reason, progressives have fielded a challenger in Danielle Herbert-Guggenheim.
The 11th Council District is located within the 15th Congressional District, which is represented by U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres, a longtime adversary of the city’s progressive movement. Herbert-Guggenheim’s campaign will likely not succeed, but may help build a foothold in this district for a future challenge to Torres from the left.
Progressives do have some positive history in Riverdale. It was here that former State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi ran up big numbers to defeat former Independent Democratic leader Jeffrey Klein, who led a faction of renegade Democrats that kept Republicans in control of the State Senate until 2016. However, Biaggi, who ran an aborted Congressional primary upstate in 2022, is a Zionist, unlike the current progressive movement, and this part of the Bronx is populated with liberal Zionists.
Council District 12
BRONX
(Eastchester, Co-op City)
Councilman Kevin Riley has an interesting challenge on his hands in this heavily black, middle-class northeast Bronx district on the Westchester border.
Riley, a close ally of State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, is facing his predecessor, Andy King, who was expelled from the Council in 2020 for misusing campaign funds.
Usually, King would be ineligible to run again as he had been elected twice to the seat in the 2010s, succeeding Larry Seabrook, who was also removed from office due to scandal. Still, in 2023, a judge ruled that King is eligible for one more term, as he was expelled before his second term was completed.
So he’s running again.
Council District 13
BRONX
(Throggs Neck, Pelham Bay, Morris Park)
In 2023, Republican Kristy Mamorato won this diverse, somewhat suburban part of the East Bronx, and it was a shocking upset. Mamorato was the first Republican to be elected to any office in the Bronx in 20 years.
Her win was an embarrassment to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who represents the same area in Congress. Mamorato won by focusing on the risk of overdevelopment and in opposing an unpopular development that her predecessor, Marjorie Velasquez, had initially supported but later opposed.
Democrats hope to win back the seat this year, and several candidates are vying for the nomination. The primary race has been quite a mess, with labor leader Shirley Abedol leading the pack of endorsements, including those from the Bronx Democratic machine, which angered other candidates who felt they weren’t allowed to compete fairly for those endorsements.
Among them is investor David Diaz, a City Island resident backed by AOC. He told City & State that the borough party leaders strung him along for months before endorsing Abedol. Veterans Jacqueline Torres and John Perez made similar complaints. Theona Reets-DuPont, chief of staff to Councilman Oswald Feliz, is also running.
Abedol also has the backing of major labor unions, including SEIU 32BJ, for which she was an executive vice president. The Working Families Party has also endorsed her.
Council District 14
BRONX
(Kingsbridge, University Heights)
Councilwoman Pierina Sanchez is in the running to be the next Council Speaker, but like Menin in Manhattan, she must first face a primary. Sanchez’s is a bit tougher.
Sanchez is facing her predecessor, former Councilman Fernando Caberea, who attempted to run a primary challenge to AOC in 2020. Cabrera is a pastor and arch social conservative, as well as a critic of democratic socialism. Sanchez has the support of the city’s progressive movement.
Like the 11th District, the 14th District is nested within Ritchie Torres’ congressional district, and progressives hope to build a base here for a future Torres primary challenge.
Sanchez may not need it. She has strong support from the local Democratic machine, even though Cabrera also has significant local support, as well as backing from key citywide officials, such as Brad Lander. Cabrera has not had much success beyond winning the council seat. He lost two primary races against State Sen. Gustavo Rivera in the 2010s. His connection to Mayor Adams, whom he advised on faith-based issues, may hurt him in the district.
Council District 16
BRONX
(Highbridge, Morrisania)
First-term Councilwoman Althea Stevens is facing a primary in this South Bronx district home to Yankee Stadium and formerly represented by Borough President Vanessa Gibson. Stevens is likely to win big as she had a lot of establishment and organizational support against her little-known and underfunded challenger, Shakur Joseph. Joseph made Stevens’ support for Mayor Adams’ “City Of Yes” central to his campaign.
Stevens, who represents one of the poorest constituencies in the city, and one heavily populated by immigrants, is considered a potential Speaker candidate.
Council District 17
BRONX
(South Bronx, Hunts Point)
A rare competitive primary in the South Bronx pits multiple factions of the Bronx establishment against the progressive left in a district that includes Hunts Point, site of several key labor actions during the Adams administration. Four candidates are vying to replace term-limited Councilman Rafael Salamanca.
Antirson Oriz, an aide to City Comptroller Brad Lander, has the support of the Working Families Party. However, in an interesting split, AOC is backing the Bronx Democratic establishment's choice, Justin Sanchez, chief of staff to State Sen. Nathalia Fernandez. Sanchez also has the backing of nearly every major labor union.
Salamanca threw his support behind Freddy Perez, first vice chair of Bronx Community Board 1. Elvis Santana, a former Assembly candidate, is also running and has the backing of former DNC Vice Chair and mayoral candidate Michael Blake.
Since the progressive left and establishment are split between three candidates, that would leave an opening for someone like Perez. Still, groups like the Working Families Party have endorsed Ortiz, Sanchez, and Santata as a list, asking voters to rank all three in one order or another, which will likely lead to one of them winning.
Turnout has thus far been anemic in this district, and if it remains so, the race could be one of the most surprising in the city.
Council District 19
QUEENS
(Whitestone, Bayside, Douglaston)
Democrats are desperate to oust MAGA Councilwoman Vickie Paladino from this suburban Northeast Queens district they held before 2021. In 2023, they renominated former Councilman Tony Avella, who had held the seat in the 2000s but lost a comeback race to Paladino in 2021. He lost again.
The Working Families Party is backing substitute teacher and Bayside-native Alexander Caruso, who is running a relatively progressive campaign focusing on housing, education, and environmental sustainability. His opponent, Benjamin Chou, a firefighter from Douglaston, is running a more moderate campaign and hopes the district’s growing and Republican-trending Asian-American population will give him a boost.
Democrats have been losing Asian-American voters in New York City recently. District 19 voted for Trump by 11 points in 2024 after voting for Biden by 10 in 2020, largely a result of a significant swing right by Chinese-American and Korean-American voters. It’s not certain that this demographic will vote in the primary at all, which gives Caruso, likely to be helped by the few, but dedicated, progressive voters in the district, a slight advantage.
Council District 21
QUEENS
(Corona, East Elmhurst)
Councilman Francisco Moya is term-limited, leaving a battle royale in this heavily Hispanic district, which includes LaGuardia Airport and Citi Field, and that swung 30 points toward Donald Trump last year. This part of Queens was an epicenter of the migrant crisis, and many Latino Democrats voted for Trump. They are also eligible to vote in this primary, creating an interesting dynamic over who they will vote for — or whether they will vote at all.
Council staffer Erycka Montoya is the frontrunner. AOC, who represents the area in Congress, is backing Montoya, as is the Working Families Party, along with local state assemblywomen Catalina Cruz and Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas, and 1199SEIU, the healthcare workers’ union. The district is home to many healthcare workers.
The district also includes East Elmhurst, home to a dwindling, but politically powerful, middle-class black community that brought to power former Queens Borough President Helen Marshall and former Deputy State Assembly Speaker Jeffrion Aubry. Aubry is backing Community Board 3 member Shantel Thomas-Henry, who also got the backing of District Council 37, the city’s largest public sector union.
Sandro Navarro, an aide to State Senator and mayoral candidate Jessice Ramos, attempted to run, but was disqualified, as was disgraced former Councilman and State Senator Hiram Monserrate, who has gained political clout recently for his MAGA-friendly positions on the migrant problem.
The Queens Democratic establishment is supporting Yanna Henriquez, a local nonprofit executive.
Council District 25
QUEENS
(Jackson Heights, Elmhurst)
Councilman Shekar Krishnan is running for his final term, facing perennial candidate, retired NYPD officer Ricardo Pacheco, whom he easily defeated in 2023.
Krishnan won a hard-fought race in 2021 and is not expected to have much trouble defeating Pacheco, especially if Mamdani, from adjacent Astoria, with whom Krishnan is politically aligned, does well in Jackson Heights.
Council District 28
QUEENS
(South Jamaica, South Richmond Hill)
The race to succeed Council Speaker and mayoral candidate Adrienne Adams is pitting two communities against each other, and once again, highlighting a long-standing issue of gerrymandering and political representation in this far-off part of Queens.
Bisected by the Van Wyck Expressway, the main traffic route to JFK Airport, Council District 28 encompasses South Jamaica, a predominantly black community with a mix of poor to middle-class residents. Across the Van Wyck, it includes South Richmond Hill and South Ozone Park, a community dominated by South Asian and Indo-Carribbean population that have, for nearly two decades now, complained about lack of political representation due to being chopped up and placed in districts that stretch beyond these neighborhoods into others with more political influence.
The favorite to replace Adams is her chief of staff, Tyrell Hankerson, who has even been running ads on Hulu.2 Hankerson has the endorsement of U.S. Rep. Greg Meeks and the Queens Democratic establishment, and the Working Families Party.
But the progressive establishment is co-endorsing with Latoya LeGrand, an aide to Assemblywoman Vivian Cook and a member of Community Board 12. Insiders tell me progressives prefer LeGrand, but sense that Hankerson has the edge due to his connection to Speaker Adams and want to ensure his support for progressive ideals on the Council.
The split between Hankerson and LeGrade would typically leave an opening for a candidate from the South Asian/Indo-Caribbean community west of the Van Wyck, but ranked-choice voting probably erases any chance of that. Nevertheless, Romeo Hitlal, a Guyanese-American civic leader and member of Community Board 10, is running as a perennial candidate, while Japneet Singh, a Sikh, is also running.
Former Councilman Ruben Wills, who resigned amid a scandal in 2017, is also running for his old seat, but it is unlikely to gain any traction.
Council District 30
QUEENS
(Middle Village, Glendale, Maspeth)
District 30 is one of the most politically confusing places in the city. The seat is held by term-limited Democrat Robert Holden, who is the biggest DINO to ever DINO. Holden lost a Democratic primary in 2017 to then-Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley – a cousin of the Joe Crowley whom AOC ousted a year later – but then Holden beat Crowley on the Republican line. However, he sits in the Democratic caucus and is one of the most conservative members of it.
A longtime community leader who espouses conservative views, Holden is term-limited and the primary candidate to succeed him in this district, which voted for Donald Trump in 20243. is competitive,
The district includes heavily white working-class neighborhoods like Glendale, Middle Village, and Maspeth, which are also home to a growing Hispanic and Asian-American population. It is one of the city’s most conservative.
The frontrunner is thought to be Dermont Smyth, a former teacher and political strategist for the United Federation of Teachers. Born in Ireland, Smyth has the support of the Queens Democratic establishment and several major labor unions. He is facing businessman Paul Pogozelski, who is likely to do well with the district’s Polish-American population, and Phil Wong, an aide to Holden, whom Holden endorsed for the primary race.
Smyth is also favored because education is one of the few issues for which this district favors Democrats. Holden won his seat in 2017 by riding the wave of neighborhood anger over the conversion of a local hotel into a homeless shelter, and has been a mostly conservative Democrat on the Council, but often sides with the party on education issues.
Interestingly, if Wong wins, the general election will be a contest between two Holden staffers. Republicans are running Holden’s deputy chief of staff, Alicia Vaichunas.
Regardless of who wins, the November general election is likely to be the most competitive in the city.
Council District 33
BROOKLYN
(Greenpoint, Brooklyn Heights, DUMBO)
Lincoln Restler, a dedicated member of the City Council’s Progressive Caucus, is facing a primary challenge from Sabrina Gates, an activist who ran for the seat in 2021.
Including the neighborhoods of Greenpoint, DUMBO, Brooklyn Heights and Boerum Hill, the district leans left politically, but not as much as the younger inland Brooklyn nabes like Fort Greene and Bushwick. Restler is not well-liked by the Brooklyn Democratic establishment. The borough party’s chairwoman, Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, has endorsed Gates.
Nevertheless, Restler should win easily, with Mamdani likely pulling out enough votes in Greenpoint at least to clinch it for him.
Council District 35
BROOKLYN
(Fort Greene, Crown Heights)
Councilwoman Crystal Hudson is running for her final term and is considered a frontrunner to be the next Council Speaker if she is reelected.
She faces three candidates: DJ and businessman Dion Ashman, Kenny Lever, and Housing advocate Hector Robinson. Neither of the three has raised much money and won many endorsements, while Hudson has the support of the Working Families Party and most labor unions. She’ll win easily.
Council District 36
BROOKLYN
(Bedford-Stuyvesant)
Councilman Chi Osse won a hard-fought race in 2021 in a Bedford-Stuyvesant district that progressives had been trying to win since the Mike Bloomberg era.
Osse has had a target on his back, especially from the real estate industry, after he successfully enacted a law banning tenants from paying listing agent broker fees for rentals. However, he is only facing token opposition this year from Reginald Swiney, who ran against Osse in 2021.
This won’t be much of a race.
Council District 38
BROOKLYN
(Sunset Park, Red Hook)
Councilwoman Alexa Avilés, one of the few openly socialist members of the City Council, was always going to face a primary. This district, based in Sunset Park, features a growing Asian-American community that has been trending away from Democrats in recent years.
Attorney Ling Ye, an aide to U.S. Rep. Dan Goldman, is running against Avilés and will likely win the district’s Asian-American precincts in the eastern part of Sunset Park, but probably not much else.
Mamdani and Brannan will do well here and help lift Avilés.
Council District 39
BROOKLYN
(Park Slope, Carroll Gardens)
For months, this was considered the most competitive council primary in the city. It is likely still to see one of the highest turnouts in the city, but Councilwoman Shahana Hanif is expected to come out on top here in the end.
Hanif has had issues in the district. In 2022, she got bad press when a staffer of hers encouraged a woman not to report to police that a homeless man attacked her and killed her dog in Prospect Park, a story that hurt the progressive cause in this more pragmatic part of Brooklyn. Her anti-Zionist stances ruffled the older Jewish liberal community in the neighborhood that was once the political base of U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer.
However, her support for Adams’ “City of Yes” housing policy, which angered some progressives, kept housing advocates on her side.
Political researcher Maya Kornberg is Hanif’s top challenger and has the support of the “old guard," including former U.S. Rep. Max Rose, former Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, and former Councilman David Yassky; however, most labor unions and the Working Families Party back Hanif.
Also running is activist Nickie Kane.
Park Slope is progressive - former Mayor Bill de Blasio and City Comptroller Brad Lander both held this seat - but it is older than the more left-wing neighborhoods like Bushwick and Bed-Stuy, and is friendlier to candidates like Kornberg.
Nevertheless, Hanif’s predecessor, Lander, who is running for mayor, will likely win the first round here and help carry Hanif to victory.
Council District 41
BROOKLYN
(Brownsville, East Flatbush)
This is one of the messiest primary races in the city, and one that has gone almost entirely unnoticed. This district covers some of the lowest-income precincts in East Brooklyn and is increasingly becoming a frontier for gentrification. Housing and crime have been huge issues here.
Councilwoman Darlene Mealy, who is disliked by Brooklyn progressives, is facing a tough primary, but her opposition is divided on who they want to support.
State Sen. Jabari Brisport threw his support behind activist Bianca Cunningham, but the Working Families Party favors Jamell Henderson, the former chairman of Brooklyn Neighborhood Advisory Board 8. Mealy, meanwhile, has the support of several key labor unions, including the United Federation of Teachers (UFT). Other candidates include Eli Brown, Clifton Hinton, Lawman Lynch, and Jammel Thompson, founder and CEO of Rich and Royal Clothing.
The district is notorious for low turnout, and a Mamdani surge in younger, newer transplants moving into the district due to lower rent may overwhelm the black political base that has kept Mealy in power. Thankfully for the left, ranked choice means they don’t have to splinter their votes, and the energy they’re bringing to Cunningham’s and Henderson’s campaigns may be enough to push one of them past Mealy in this increasingly gentrifying district.
Council District 46
BROOKLYN
(Canarsie, Marine Park, Mill Basin)
Councilwoman Mercedes Narcisse is running for a final term in this district along the shore of Jamaica Bay. The district is based in the middle-class black and immigrant community of Canarsie and is not particularly friendly to progressives.
Narcisse is facing 2021 candidate R. Dimple Willabus, a businesswoman who has the Conservative Party line in November.
Narcisse is not popular in the more conservative parts of the district, such as Mill Basin and Gerritsen Beach, which voted for Trump in 2024. Still, there are not many registered Democrats in the area who could turn out for Willabus, and complaints about Narcisse’s constituent services that led to her underperformance in the 2023 general election have largely died away.
She’ll win easily.
Council District 47
BROOKLYN
(Bay Ridge, Coney Island)
The race to succeed Justin Brannan, who is running for City Comptroller, is going to be a hard-fought one, both on Tuesday and in November. In a rarity, both parties have primaries here.
The Democratic frontrunner is Kayla Santosuosso, counsel to Brannan. She has the support of Brannan herself, the Working Families Party, and several labor unions like District Council 37 and the UFT. Her opponent, Fedir Usmanov, doesn’t have many endorsements but hopes to garner a good turnout among the Eastern European population in the Coney Island wing of the district.
However, the more populated Bay Ridge portion will likely see a big turnout, thanks to Brannan’s spot on the citywide ticket and the growing Palestinian population there, which will likely show up for Mamdani. That should clinch it for Santosuosso.
On the Republican side, Brooklyn GOP chairman Richie Barsamian is facing George Sarantopoulos, an aide to Republican Assemblyman Lester Chang.
The district has historically been one of the most competitive in the city, and Brannan won several tight races in 2017 and 2021. Republicans will try to pick it up in November.
Council District 48
BROOKLYN
(Sheepshead Bay, Brighton Beach)
Republican Councilwoman Inna Vernikov has had an interesting time in office since winning in 2021. She is perhaps most notorious for being arrested for gun possession after bringing a gun onto the campus of Brooklyn College during a pro-Palestinian rally, implying she did so for self-defense because she feared the protestors.
She is also known for her opposition to vaccine mandates following the COVID-19 Pandemic and for attempting to persuade a developer to reduce the number of affordable units in a Coney Island development and increase the number of parking spots.
Vernikov is facing a primary from Ari Kagen, a former Democratic councilwoman who ran as a Republican against Justin Brannan after his Gravesend-based district was dismantled in redistricting. Kagen lost the race and is now trying to defeat Vernikov.
Vernikov has the support of the existing Brooklyn Republican establishment and is likely to win easily.
Council District 49
STATEN ISLAND
(North Shore, St. George)
Councilwoman Kamilla Hanks, Staten Island’s only Democratic councilmember, has found herself on the target list of New York City progressives.
Hanks is fighting to retain her seat against several primary challengers. The most notable is activist Sarah Blas, who has the support of the Working Families Party.
Hanks is also facing civic leader Telee Brown and court analyst Abou Sy Diakhate, but Blas is likely her most significant opposition.
Turnout has been enemic on Staten Island in early voting, and only a handful of votes would decide this race. A Mamdani surge will not win him Staten Island, but it could provide just enough votes for Blas to oust Hanks.
Council District 51
STATEN ISLAND
(Tottenville, Etingville)
The most Republican district on the City Council, District 51 on the South Shore of Staten Island, was held by former Council Minority Leader, perhaps New York City’s strongest Trump supporter, Joe Borelli, until he abruptly resigned in January.
Former radio host Frank Moreno won the seat in May in a special election and was expected to face Griffin Fossella, son of Staten Island Borough President and former U.S. Rep. Vita Fossella. However, Fossella dropped out of the race earlier this month. He remains on the ballot, though, as does former NYPD Sergeant John Buthorn.
Moreno should win easily. He will face Democrat Cliff Hagen in November, but no Democrat has ever gotten more than 26 percent in this district. Donald Trump won 77 percent of the vote here last November.
Powers and I were in the same homeroom at St. Francis Prep and graduated in 2001.
I was a constituent in this district during the 2010s, and the district’s western border is just two blocks from my home. I assume that’s why I was getting these ads while watching Bob’s Burgers and Hot Ones on Hulu.
Donald Trump’s parents, paternal grandparents, and brother are buried at All Lutheran Cemetery in this district.
I am kind of surprised that Julie Menin is the favorite to be next City Council speaker. Actually I am surprised that anyone from her district would a favorite. It would seem almost inevitable her and her constituents would be in a massive conflict with Mamdani and his supporters.