New York's Primary Election Roundup
The 16th District Democratic Primary Is The Premiere Race Of A Busy Tuesday
THE GREAT POLITICAL ROADTRIP is taking a break this week. We will return on Monday, July 1, with MINNESOTA and MISSISSIPPI.
This week, I have a roundup of state and federal primaries in New York State this Tuesday. The marquee race, the Democratic Party in the 16th Congressional District, will get most of the attention (take a look at my analysis here), but there are plenty of other exciting races going on across the state.
Take a look:
LONG ISLAND
NY01- (The Hamptons, Riverhead, Brookhaven)
The First Congressional District of New York covers the East End of Long Island and New York City’s conservative exurbs in Central Suffolk County. It was the district formerly held by Republican Lee Zeldin, who ran a surprisingly strong race for Governor in 2022, causing many pundits to rethink their analysis of New York politics.
Republican Nick LaLota is running for reelection. The district narrowly voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, but he is considered a favorite for reelection. Vying to face him are Nancy Goroff, the 2020 nominee for the seat, and Jon Avlon, a former journalist and political analyst who was once editor-in-chief of The Daily Beast.
The issue here is who is more loyal to the Democratic Party. Avlon, a former speechwriter for Rudy Giuliani, has been criticized for being a founding member of No Labels, an organization that many progressive Democrats have slammed for pushing the idea that both parties are equally extreme and for attempting to field third-party candidates for president. Avlon has disavowed the organization’s aborted attempt to field a candidate in 2024. He is also married to Margaret Hoover, the granddaughter of Republican President Herbert Hoover and a Republican herself. Goroff has suggested Avlon would be “a Joe Manchin-type” Democrat if he were to win, which in a closely divided house could give Democrats stomach pains. Still, Avlon argues that a Democrat needs to be moderate and bipartisan to run this equally-divided district.
Goroff will attempt to leverage her connections and experience running in the district from her past race, but Avlon has significant financial and institutional support. The edge goes to him.
LEAN AVLON
SD6- (Nassau County: Freeport, Hempstead, Westbury)
The sixth district, the most Democratic State Senate district on Long Island, is being vacated by State Sen. Kevin Thomas, who made an abortive run for Congress. Two of Long Island’s most prominent black women in politics are vying for the Democratic nomination for the seat, and it will likely be an extremely close race.
Assemblywoman Taylor Darling and Nassau County Legislator Siela Bynoe are competing to be the first black woman elected to the State Senate from Long Island.
Who wins this seat is anyone’s guess. Darling has experience in Albany and will benefit from a competitive primary happening on the same ballot for her Assembly seat, which may boost turnout in her native Hempstead. Still, according to my Long Island sources (I used to operate in Nassau County Democratic circles), Bynoe has the money advantage and the backing of Jay Jacobs, the Nassau County and New York Democratic Party chair. I’ll give the benefit to her.
TILT BYNOE
SD7- (Nassau County: Great Neck, Glen Cove, Oyster Bay)
The Gold Coast district on Nassau County’s north shore is a swing Senate district that has changed hands four times in the past 15 years. Incumbent Republican Jack Martins, who held the seat from 2011-2017, defeated Democrat Anna Kaplan in the red wave in 2022, running on Lee Zeldin’s coattails. Notorious former Rep. George Santos also represented his area in Congress.
Santos’ downfall and the decisive win U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi scored in February’s special election has sparked Democrats' hope that they could win back this district in November. Suozzi won the district by a reasonably comfortable margin in the special election.
A competitive primary has emerged between Port Washington Democratic Club President Kim Keiserman and Brad Schwartz, a former film editor who ran for the seat in 2018 but lost to Kaplan in the primary. Schwartz was in the race even before Suozzi won the special election for Congress.
Keiserman has a slight money advantage and endorsements from nearly every top Democrat in the district, including Suozzi, Kaplan, and State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, who is from Great Neck. Schwartz has the Working Families Party ballot line, but it may not be enough to overcome the machine that brought Suozzi back to power.
LEAN KEISERMAN
AD4- (Suffolk County: Port Jefferson, Stony Brook, Coram)
A longtime Democratic seat that flipped in the red wave that swept Long Island in 2022, this district, centered in Port Jefferson, will likely be competitive in November. The Democratic primary is between Skyler Johnson, a past candidate, and Rebecca Kassay.
Johnson has run for office before. He was the Democratic candidate for State Senate in 2022 against Republican Anthony Palumbo and outran Gov. Kathy Hochul in the district, winning 44 percent. Johnson has the backing of the Working Families Party. Kassay is a first-time candidate, but she has the support of Suffolk County Legislator Steven Englebright, who held this seat until his narrow 2022 defeat. Several other local Democratic officials also back her.
Though Johnson clearly has campaign experience and having the support of the Working Families Party is often a good predictor for who may win a Democratic primary in New York, that’s not always true on Long Island, and establishment support may matter more in a district like this.
TILT KASSAY
AD18- (Nassau County: Hempstead, Freeport, Roosevelt)
The 18th district is a staunchly Democratic district in Nassau County that includes the mainly black working-class and middle-class communities of Freeport, Lakeview, Roosevelt, Uniondale, and the Village of Hempstead. Incumbent Taylor Darling is running for the open State Senate seat, and the Democratic primary to replace her is a race between Hempstead Village Trustee Noah Burroughs and Lisa Ortiz, a civic leader from Lakeview.
Burroughs has the support of the Working Families Party and the county Democratic establishment and should easily win.
VERY LIKELY BURROUGHS
AD 21 (Nassau County: Lynbrook, Rockville Centre, Baldwin)
This is another highly competitive general election district. Centered in the New York City suburbs of Lynbrook and Rockville Centre, it is a diverse district that has been trending Democratic in comparison with the rest of Long Island. Republican Brian Curran defeated two-term Democratic incumbent Judy Griffin by only 138 votes in the 2022 red wave. Griffin is seeking her old seat back but faces perennial candidate Patricia Maher in Tuesday’s primary.
Griffin, the former incumbent, has the support of the entire Democratic establishment and should win easily. Despite being on Long Island, the district is not particularly favorable to Donald Trump-style Republicanism. It is the most Democratic seat in the State Assembly to be held by a Republican. Biden received nearly 60 percent of the vote here, so this district is a prime pickup opportunity for the party in November.
SAFE GRIFFIN
NEW YORK CITY
NY14- (East Bronx, Jackson Heights, Astoria)
Progressive icon Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez will not go without a primary challenge. Though she quickly dispensed with her 2022 challengers, this year, she’s facing a race against financier Marty Dolan, who interestingly doesn’t live in the district.
Dolan, who lives in Westchester County, initially ran against Bowman in the 16th district before switching races when Latimer got in. He’s unlikely to get much traction against AOC, who has a war chest, but his campaign did make some news when it paid for a giant billboard ad in Times Square last week.
AOC’s standing in the district has diminished in recent years, with her margins decreasing in the East Bronx and conservative parts of Queens like College Point. However, she still has significant support in voter-rich areas like Jackson Heights and Astoria, ensuring she’ll maintain a massive margin of victory.
SAFE AOC
SD59- (Long Island City, Greenpoint, Stuyvesant Town)
The only state senate district that crosses into three boroughs, this district that straddles the East River is a progressive bastion. Still, incumbent Kristen Gonzales, a member of DSA, is facing a primary from the center from Konstantinos (Gus) Lambropoulos, a Greek-American philanthropist from Astoria.
Lambropoulos doesn’t have much money or what appears to be a strong ground game, but his wife is running for a district leader position in Astoria, and the neighborhood’s Greek community is in the district. Gonzales has become a divisive figure in the less progressive parts of the district, and some progressives have been less than impressed with her. However, it would be a significant upset if she were to lose. With Assembly primaries happening down-ballot in Long Island City and Greenpoint, it's hard to see how that happens.
Keep an eye on this one, though. If Gonzales underperforms, say, comes within 10-15 points of losing, it could put a target on her back in 2026.
SAFE GONZALES
AD 25 (Queens: Oakland Gardens, Fresh Meadows)
Two Asian-American candidates are vying for the Republican nomination in this Majority-Asian Eastern Queens district that saw a shocking right-wing swing in recent elections. Retired NYPD Sargeant Kenneth Paek is up against Kenneth Chiu, a local activist, who narrowly lost to Assemblyman Ron Kim in an adjacent district in 2022. Chiu has since switched parties. Both candidates are focusing on crime and the migrant crisis, which are both highly salient issues in Eastern Queens. A recent incident where a migrant raped a 13-year-old girl in a park in this district made national news.
Paek seems to have institutional support. He’s raised the most money, even more than longtime Democratic incumbent Nily Rozic, and has the Conservative Party's ballot line.
The district was first drawn as an Asian opportunity district in 2012, but Rozic, who is Jewish, has represented it ever since. The district's population has grown more Asian since then, and that demographic has also shifted to the GOP, making a potential general election between Rozic and either Paek or Chiu an interesting one to watch.
LEANS PAEK
AD 34 (Queens: Jackson Heights, Ditmars-Steinway)
Incumbent Democrat Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas is one of the several progressives facing primary challenges in the five boroughs. First elected in 2020 when she defeated longtime incumbent Michael Den Dekker in this Jackson Heights-based district, Gonzalez-Rojas is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, one of eight in the State Legislature. She ran unopposed in 2022, but this year, she faces Richard Pacheco, a former City Council candidate, in the Democratic primary.
The district is the heart of U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's political base and includes the Ditmars-Steinway section of Astoria, a leftist stronghold, so Gonzalez-Rojas should win easily. However, the district also includes conservative Eastern Astoria and Woodside, including the Boulevard Gardens Co-op. Pacheco hopes to attract enough people angry at the Democratic Party's leftward turn to pull off an upset. The recent right-wing turn of some Hispanics in the neighborhood may also help in his favor. It’s a tall order because Gonzalez-Rojas has a vast base and incumbency from which to pull, but an upset is not out of the question.
VERY LIKELY GONZALES-ROJAS
AD 35 (Queens: East Elmhurst, Corona, LeFrak City)
A thorn in the ass of Queens Democrats for a decade and a half now, former State Senator Hiram Monserrate is back again. Since being expelled from the body in 2010 after he was arrested for assaulting his former girlfriend, Monserrate has sought to regain office numerous times, even after serving nearly two years in prison on corruption charges. He ran for City Council twice in the 2010s and challenged longtime incumbent Jeffrion Aubry in this district in 2022, losing handily. He’s back again, facing off against fellow district leader Latrina Hooks, who is running to replace the retiring Aubry.
Hooks has Aubry’s endorsement and the full force of the Queens Democratic machine behind her. Still, this district, which includes all of East Elmhurst and the LeFrak City development, as well as LaGuardia Airport and CitiField, is unpredictable regarding turnout. Monserrate could pull off an upset, but I wouldn’t count on it. Wouldn’t it be interesting if he did?
LIKELY HOOKS
AD 37 (Queens: Sunnyside, Maspeth, Ridgewood)
This district recently gave New York City progressives a bit of a black eye. When longtime incumbent Cathy Nolan retired in 2022, progressives got behind Juan Ardila, who easily won the increasingly progressive seat in Western Queens. Ardila, a former staffer for now-City Comptroller Brad Lander, turned out to be a train wreck. He was accused of sexual assault by at least two women and refused calls from every corner to resign.
Ardila is still on the ballot, but he will likely be unseated by District Leader Claire Valdez, whom Democratic Socialists of America, the Working Families Party, and other prominent progressive groups endorsed. A third candidate, the more moderate Johanna Carmona, is also in the mix. Carmona has the backing of most of the Queens Democratic establishment, including U.S. Rep. Gregory Meeks, Borough President Donovan Richards, and Nolan. The Daily News has also endorsed Carmona.
Ridgewood, Ardila’s former base, will likely deliver a big vote haul to Valdez, but Carmona might be able to count on many voters from Maspeth. Sunnyside, meanwhile, is the battleground, and turnout will matter. What effect Ardila might have on the race is also a factor. Progressives got behind Ardila in 2022, though DSA and other groups mostly stayed out of the race. They’ve had their eye on this seat since the Ardila scandal broke, and it would be a massive defeat for them if Valdez lost.
I’ll give this one to Valdez, but not by much. A Carmona win is indeed not out of the question.
LEAN VALDEZ
AD 40 (Queens: Downtown Flushing)
Assemblyman Ron Kim has symbolized progressive strength in Eastern Queens for years. Representing the heart of Flushing, the largest Chinese and Korean community on the East Coast, Kim succeeded U.S. Rep Grace Meng when she was elected to Congress in 2012. He helped spawn the career of former Assemblywoman and congressional candidate Yuh-Line Niou, his former chief of staff.
The district has shifted under Kim’s feet recently. Progressive aloofness toward issues like crime and education and how it affects the Asian community have left residents in this district reconsidering progressive policies and even, in some cases, the Democratic Party entirely. Lee Zeldin narrowly won here in 2022.
As a result, moderates smelled blood. In 2022, Kim only narrowly survived a primary, winning by less than 100 votes. He was then nearly unseated by a Republican, Sharon Liao, in November, winning by less than 500 votes.
Kim is being challenged this year by Yi Andy Chen, a former City Council candidate who has raised over a quarter of a million dollars for the race. Another candidate, Dao Yin, is in the race. He focuses on the crime issue that nearly unseated Kim in 2022, calling for increasing police budgets and revisiting bail reform.
Kim’s only hope is that Chen and Yin will split enough of the vote to let him sneak through, but Chen’s war chest is too large to ignore.
TOSSUP
AD 41 (Brooklyn: Sheepshead Bay, Flatlands, East Flatbush)
Assemblywoman Helene Weinstein, the longest-serving member of the state legislature, is retiring after 44 years and has already endorsed Councilman Kalman Yeger as her replacement. Yeger, interestingly, represents an adjacent part of Brooklyn in the Council, and his district and AD44 overlap only a few blocks in Midwood, one of which is where Yeger lives.
Both districts include a significant population of Haredi Jews, but AD44 also consists of some non-Jewish areas in Flatlands, East Flatbush, and Sheepshead Bay, the latter of which has a growing Russian population. Biden only won 55 percent of the vote in the district in 2020. Yeger is facing Adam Dweck, a billing manager with government experience. Yeger and Dweck are running as relatively conservative Democrats, focusing heavily on crime and Dweck on accountability for the MTA. Yeger has the institutional support and money, however.
VERY LIKELY YEAGER
AD 50 (Brooklyn: Greenpoint, Williamsburg)
It’s hard to get a good read on this race. Two-term incumbent Emily Gallagher, a progressive and member of DSA, should be in for an easy win in this district, a DSA stronghold itself. Gallagher is likely to win, but local issues often reign supreme over ideology in these races, and if Gallagher’s primary opponent, Anathea Simpkins wins in an upset, that’ll be why.
The main issue in this race is transportation policy, specifically the failed reimagining of McGuinness Boulevard and the “open street” policy implemented on Berry Street in Williamsburg, which is shut down to vehicular traffic daily during daytime hours. Both proposals were divisive in the community, and opposition to the traffic calming efforts on McGuinness and Berry organized opposition in a way that hadn’t existed before and could threaten Gallagher. Some progressives in the district are less than enthralled with her inability to push the McGuinness plan through, get stronger “good cause” rent regulations passed – a signature issue for her – and recent news stories about her illegally parking in the district where drivers are not generally favored. She has also been criticized for lackluster constituent service.
However, Gov. Kathy Hochul’s plan to spike congestion pricing may help Gallagher. The plan is likely to be reasonably popular in the district, and progressive-leaning voters who are unhappy with Gallagher may be inclined to vote for her anyway to send a message to the governor. Gallagher has the support of the Working Families Party and brought in some big guns, including U.S. Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, to endorse her.
What effect the third candidate, Andrew Bodiford, may have on the race is also up for debate, but he will likely finish third and only be a factor if the race is close.
VERY LIKELY GALLAGHER
AD 52 (Brooklyn: Brooklyn Heights, DUMBO, Cobble Hill)
Assemblywoman Jo Ann Simon has sought higher office several times, running for Brooklyn Borough President in 2021, where she finished second in the Democratic primary. She ran for Congress in the 10th Congressional District in 2022 and lost. Thanks to a quirk in redistricting that delayed state legislative primaries, she could run again for her Assembly seat last time and won/
Simon is popular in the district, but her repeated runs for higher office have inspired some opposition. She’s facing a challenge from attorney Scott Budow, a first-time candidate. Budow’s main issue is housing, and he’s running on a platform to build more of it, a controversial stance in the district.
The district includes neighborhoods like Brooklyn Heights, Carroll Gardens, Cobble Hill, and Gowanus, as well as low-density, high-priced communities where housing has been an enormous issue. Plans to build more development to ease the problem is a thorny prospect.
Simon has institutional support and the backing of the Working Families Party, so she should be able to pull it out fairly quickly. Still, Budow has outraised her, showing that he is serious competition.
LEAN SIMON
AD 56 (Brooklyn: Bedford-Stuyvesant)
Based in Bedford-Stuyvesant, Assembly District 56 may be the best opportunity for the DSA and New York’s struggling progressive movement to pick up a seat. Ground zero for gentrification in Brooklyn at the moment, this district is already a DSA stronghold on the State Senate (Jabari Brisport) and City Council (Chi Osse) levels and is one of the few places in the city where socialist support may be growing as their young professional base increasingly find lower rents in this part of Brooklyn.
Stefani Zinerman won the seat in 2020, defeating Justin Cohen, backed by New York progressives, by a 15-point margin. While it seemed like a defeat for the left, Cohen was white and a transplant to the neighborhood, which has historically been a seat of black political power for generations. Shirley Chisholm, the first black woman ever elected to Congress, came from here. This year, Zinerman faces a black socialist, Eon Huntley, and a Brooklyn native.
The district has gentrified even more since 2020, and the new population is friendly to socialist causes. Zinerman typically can count on big turnout in the district’s many housing projects, including Marcy, Sumner, and Eleanor Roosevelt Houses. However, the presence of a young black Brooklyn native as her opponent may cause some erosion of support in that demographic.
The race is also a proxy battle between the socialist movement in Central Brooklyn, led by Brisport, and the de facto establishment headed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who represents the area in Congress. Nevertheless, progressives must win this district to continue influencing policy in Albany.
TOSSUP
AD 68 (Manhattan: East Harlem)
This race is less about ideology and more about demographics. Incumbent Eddie Gibbs won a special election for the seat in 2022 to replace Robert Rodriguez, who had been appointed New York Secretary of State by Gov. Hochul. Gibbs had an inspiring story. He had served time in prison after he pleaded guilty to an assault charge when he was 17. He revealed the incident was self-defense, but he was pressured into the deal out of fear. Picking up his life after prison, he wanted to run for office to inspire ex-convicts that they have a place in society. In a contentious race among Manhattan Democratic leaders, he was nominated for the special election, won, and faced a tough primary in 2022.
The problem is that a Latino has represented the East Harlem seat for half a century, and Gibbs is the first black person to represent the district. No Latino has ever won citywide office, and only one has ever won statewide: Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, who ran on a ticket with Hochul and is from Upstate. The seat is pretty important to them.
Gibbs is facing three candidates: Tamika Mapp, who has run for the seat before against both Gibbs and Rodriguez; first-time candidate William Smith; and Xavier Santiago, who has the support of several critical Hispanic elected and former officials, including U.S. Rep. Adriano Espaillat and former City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, who represented East Harlem in City Hall.
As Latinos make up the lion's share of the voting population in the district, it's hard to see how Santiago doesn’t pull out a win here.
LEAN SANTIAGO
AD 69 (Manhattan: Upper West Side, Morningside Heights)
This seat has been represented by Danny O’Donnell, the actress and comedienne Rosie O’Donnell’s brother, for over two decades. This year, he’s retiring. A rare open seat in the politically powerful Upper West Side has attracted much attention. Five candidates are running in the Democratic primary. The frontrunners appear to be Micah Lasher, who narrowly lost a State Senate primary in 2018, and Eli Northup, who has the endorsement of O’Donnell. Jack Kellner, a first-time candidate, Melissa Rosenberg, and Carmen Quinones, who appears to have the support of former Republican mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa, are also running,
Lasher feels like the frontrunner here. He’s got the endorsement of Manhattan Democratic figures like U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler and Borough President Mark Levine. Northup has the Working Families Party nod on top of O’Donnell’s backing. The Upper West Side has recently become tough turf for progressives due to housing, crime, and migrant policies, which may hamper Northup’s chances. Open state legislative primaries, especially in the Upper West Side, can be unpredictable.
TILT LASHER
AD 70 (Manhattan: Central Harlem)
Assemblywoman Inez Dickens is hanging up her hat this year after losing a competitive City Council primary to regain her old seat in City Hall in 2023. The race to replace her is competitive, but the frontrunner appears to be Jordan J.G. Wright, son of Manhattan Democratic boss and former Assemblyman Keith L.T. Wright. The elder Wright gave up this seat in 2016 to run for Congress – a race he narrowly lost to Espaillat.
The Wrights are a Harlem political dynasty. The younger Wright’s grandfather and uncle were both judges. He faces Shana Harmongoff, a former staffer for then-State Senator and later Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin. Harmongoff is probably Wright’s biggest challenge, but two other candidates are running; Maria Ordonez, a housing activist and local committeewoman, is the left’s unofficial candidate in the race and has raised a lot of money, and Craig Schley, a former model who ran as an independent for the seat in 2010 and as a Republican for Congress in 2012.
It would be a massive black eye for the elder Wright if his son doesn't win the seat, but he’s not a shoo-in. Ordonez could be a contender, but progressives are on the defense in Harlem after the clown show of fail that was progressive-backed former Councilwoman Kristen Richardson Jordan’s tenure in office. Wright is the favorite here.
VERY LIKELY WRIGHT
AD 71 (Manhattan: Hamilton Heights, Hudson Heights)
Assemblyman Al Taylor has faced a primary in this Upper Manhattan district in every election he’s run in since winning a 2017 special election to succeed Herman “Denny” Farrell, who had held the seat for decades. Taylor has always won big.
This year, he’s facing local activist Julien Segura, who, among other ideas, wants to build more municipal parking garages in densely populated communities. While that may seem bizarre, Upper Manhattan, especially Hudson Heights, has one of the borough's highest car ownership rates. The district also includes the foot of the busiest bridge on the planet for vehicular traffic - the George Washington Bridge.
It’s probably not enough to make building parking garages a salient enough issue to oust an incumbent, but it’s worth seeing how far it gets Segura.
SAFE TAYLOR
AD 72 (Manhattan: Washington Heights, Inwood, Marble Hill)
Here in Little Santo Domingo, we’re not even sure there’s an election. Incumbent Assemblyman Manny De Los Santos faces Francesca Castellanos, a perennial candidate who often runs for the seat. Castellanos got nearly 20 percent of the vote in 2006 against Espaillat when he held the seat.
She hasn’t raised any money and my sources in the neighborhood (one I’m pretty familiar with as my ex lived there), said there is little campaign to speak of.
SAFE DE LOS SANTOS
AD 77 (Bronx: Highbridge, Tremont, Morris Heights)
Incumbent Landon Dais won a special election for this seat in 2023. He ran significantly behind the Democratic Party’s baseline in this West Bronx district due to his Republican opponent being a popular civic leader from vote-rich Highbridge Houses. That led some to believe Dais could be vulnerable to a primary challenge as he runs for his first full term.
Leonardo Coello, Bronx director for Mayor Eric Adams’ Office of Community Affairs, is in the raise and has raised some money. Bronx elections are often low-turnout affairs with unpredictable swings, so an upset is not out of the question.
LEAN DAIS
AD 82 (Bronx: Co-op City, Pelham Bay, Throggs Neck)
It seems odd that progressives are putting so much effort into picking off incumbent Assemblyman Michael Benedetto in this district. It has not been friendly to them. Located entirely within U.S. Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez’s terrain, the congresswoman won the district in the general election by 25 points, and while that seems like a decent win, it was well behind her 43-point win districtwide. Worse, this part of the Bronx elected a Republican to the City Council last year, the first time the party won a race in the Bronx in over two decades. Kristy Marmorato, the winner, actually won the 82nd Assembly District portion of the council district with over 60 percent of the vote. Opposition to a local housing development championed by progressives was the main issue that drove her victory.
There may be one completely unrelated reason why DSA and progressives are heavily invested in his district – because the only part of the district that didn’t overlap the council one Republicans won is Co-op City, the housing development home to nearly 45,000 people, also part of the 16th Congressional District where the barn-burning Jamaal Bowman-George Latimer primary is happening. As another Assembly primary in the northern, heavily Jewish part of the congressional district is likely to pull out votes for Latimer (more on this later), progressives hope to counter that for Bowman here. The district also includes Pelham Bay, Country Club, and Throggs Neck, historically white areas with a growing Albanian and Latino population, trending to the Republicans at a pretty surprising pace. The Albanians are relatively conservative, but they’re also anti-Zionist. Progressives hope a big Co-op City turnout and Albanians voting on the Gaza issue could deliver them an upset win.
Soto ran in 2020 but only got 36 percent of the vote. He is unlikely to unseat Benedetto, but if turnout is high in Co-op City and low everywhere else in the district, which borders on suburban elsewhere, he can pull off the upset. Early voting has been low in the Bronx so that I wouldn’t hold my breath.
LIKELY BENEDETTO
AD 84 (Bronx: Mott Haven, Hunts Point)
There isn’t much to write home about there. Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo is running for a third term. Though she was held to just 50 percent in a multi-candidate primary in 2022, only one of those candidates, Hector Feliciano, is running again. Feliciano is a district leader and ally of former Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo, whom Septimo attempted to oust in 2018. There’s a lot of bad blood there.
Feliciano hasn’t raised much money, and though his campaign is active in Mott Haven (where I lived part-time from 2018 until 2021), it does not inspire confidence in his chances of winning.
SAFE SEPTIMO
HUDSON VALLEY
AD 92 (Pleasantville, Tarrytown, Dobbs Ferry)
Longtime incumbent Assemblywoman Thomas Abinanti was ousted in 2022 by Maryjane Shimsky partly due to Abinanti’s controversial views on vaccines. However, Shimsky ruffled feathers in the district when she supported legislation in Albany that would allow the hamlet of Edgemont in the Town of Greenburgh to incorporate itself as a village.
Edgemont is not in the district, but most of the rest of the town of Greenburgh is, and the town’s supervisor, Paul Feiner, has been quietly supporting Abinanti’s comeback bid. Shimsky came out against Edgemont’s incorporation after a state report suggested the village’s incorporation would wreck the town’s finances, but the damage had already been done.
Shimsky won by a fairly decent margin last time, so she has room to maneuver. She has support from the Working Families Party and has outraised Abinanti.
A wild card factor is that the Greenburgh portion of this district overlaps with the 16th Congressional District and is heavily Jewish. This will likely mean a high turnout in the primary for Westchester County Executive George Latimer in his race against Rep. Jamaal Bowman. Shimsky has endorsed Latimer and hopes to ride his coattails to victory. This is a hard one, but I’ll give the edge to Shimsky, provided Latimer does indeed win his race.
TILT SHIMSKY
AD 97 (New Square, Monsey, Pearl River)
This is the first Democratic primary in a Republican-held Assembly seat. AD97 was the former seat of now-U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican who ousted longtime Democratic incumbent Ellen Jaffe in an upset in 2018. This win eventually catapulted Lawler to Congress. Republicans held the seat in 2022, and the shift in the Hasidic community—the most significant outside of New York City—to the Republicans has led some to conclude that the district is unwinnable for a Democrat.
At least one that isn’t Hasidic.
Rockland County Legislator Aron Wieder thinks he can do it. Well-known in the Rockland Hasidic community, Weider got 41 percent of the vote in 2016, running in an adjacent Republican-leaning Assembly district. This district is more Democratic.
First, though, Wieder has to dispense with 2022 nominee Eudson Francois. Francois hasn’t raised much money, and Wieder has a considerable support base to draw, so this should be easy.
SAFE WIEDER
AD 100 (Monticello, Middletown)
It's a rare Republican primary to discuss in this Biden +7 district in the Catskills.
The district, being vacated by Democrat Aileen Gunther, is a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP as Sullivan County is trending rightward. Still, a competitive primary awaits between Louis Ingrassia, the Public Works Commissioner of the Town of Wallkill, backed by the Orange County Republicans, and Camille O’Brien, a former staffer for former State Sen. Mario Martucci, who has the backing of Sullivan County Republicans.
The district includes Monticello and Middletown but voted for Lee Zeldin in 2022 and may be the best pickup opportunity for the GOP in the state. Democrats have already decided on Paula Kay, who worked on Gunther’s staff.
Republican primaries are hard to predict in New York, but O’Brien has raised the most money, so I’m using that as a telltale. She also has the Conservative Party line.
LEAN O’BRIEN
AD 102 (Catskill, Delhi, Cooperstown)
Another Democratic primary in a Republican-held seat. This district, mainly located in the Northern Catskills and touching the northern part of the Hudson Valley, is GOP-leaning. Still, some Democratic-dominated towns like Catskill and Cooperstown could make it competitive.
Two Democrats are vying for the nomination to challenge incumbent Republican Christopher Teague: Mary Finneran, a retired art teacher running as a progressive who focuses on the environment, healthcare, and aid to farmers, and Delhi Village Board member Janet Tweed.
Finneran already has the Working Families Party ballot line for November and has raised slightly more money than Tweed.
Tweed's base in Delhi, Delaware County, could deliver the votes needed to win the primary. The edge goes to Finneran, though.
TILT FINNERAN
AD 103 (Kingston, New Paltz, Rhinebeck)
Assemblywoman Sarahana Shrestha’s 2022 win over incumbent Kevin Cahill was a massive victory for New York progressives. One of the first victories they’ve had outside New York City, Shrestha was able to plant a flag for progressives in the heart of the Hudson Valley.
The district includes some of the Democratic strongholds of Ulster County, Kingston, New Paltz, Saugerties, and Rhinebeck across the Hudson. It’s solidly Democratic, but the turn against progressives in the state since 2022 has put a target on Shrestha. She is facing a challenge from Gabi Madden.
Madden is running as a progressive but critical of Shrestha and the organized Left.
" focus on rhetoric over results.” She outraised Shrestha and secured the endorsement of some local officials, including Kingston Mayor Kevin Noble and State Sen. James Skoufis.
Incumbency should protect Shreshta, the first Nepali elected to the state legislature. Still, Madden’s money and local support could swamp her if progressive turnout is down in New Paltz and Kingston.
TILT SHRESTHA
AD 106 (Hudson, Hyde Park)
Fun Fact:
Cynthia Nixon played Eleanor Roosevelt in Warm Springs, a 2005 biographical film about Franklin D. Roosevelt. The Roosevelts are buried at their home in Hyde Park, in the 106th Assembly District.
Nixon made a rare endorsement in the race to represent Hyde Park in Albany, backing Columbia County Board of Supervisors member Claire Cousin, who is challenging longtime Assemblywoman Didi Barret in the increasingly progressive-leaning district.
The district, which includes most of Dutchess and Columbia counties, is home to a growing population of progressives relocating from New York City. These new voters who are embracing Cousin’s campaign could threaten Barrett. Though DSA hasn’t endorsed Cousin, many progressive organizations have.
Barrett has the advantage of incumbency, but the district is changing, and many new people who weren’t voting in 2020 and 2022 are now voting here.
TILT BARRETT
UPSTATE NEW YORK
NY22- (Syracuse, Utica)
This Syracuse-based Congressional district is one of the most competitive in the country, and this year, two Democrats are seeking to oust incumbent Brandon Williams, who won in 2022 by the skin of his teeth.
The frontrunner appears to be State Senator John Mannion. Mannion is no stranger to close races, having won his reelection campaign by ten votes in 2022. Mannion has the support of the Working Families Party and a significant lead in fundraising and endorsements over his opponent, DeWitt Town Councilor and Air Force Vet Sarah Klee Hood.
However, recent allegations of a hostile work environment in Mannion’s Senate office have rankled the race. Though Mannion denies the allegations, some Democrats in the district have taken a second look at Hood. Female veterans, like Mikie Sherill of New Jersey and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, have had significant success recently as Democrats. That history of success gives Hood some validation.
Mannion is still the favorite, though, because of his ability to turn out votes for him.
LEAN MANNION
NY24- (Watertown, Canandaigua, Seneca Falls)
Republican Claudia Tenney scored a significant victory in the redistricting fight when she got the safest Republican seat in the state. However, she has to defend it from a primary challenge from attorney Mario Fratto again.
Fratto kept Tenney to just a 4,500 win in 2022 and hopes to oust her this year on low turnout by activating New York’s most conservative voters. He ran interestingly to her right, and the race has gotten nasty. Fratto insists that Tenney, who has the most conservative voting record in the state’s delegation, is not conservative enough.
It’ll be interesting to see if voters in New York’s most Republican district agree.
VERY LIKELY TENNEY
SD48- (Syracuse, Auburn)
A competitive Republican primary has emerged to challenge Democratic incumbent Rachel May in this district, which includes Syracuse and its western and southern suburbs.
Caleb Slater, former president of Ithaca College Republicans, is taking on Fanny Villarreal, an immigrant from Peru who was executive director for the Onondaga County YWCA. Both have focused on different issues in their campaigns.
Slater opposes the “Green New Deal,” a shot at the incumbent May’s focus on environmental concerns, while Villarreal has criticized the state’s handling of the migrant crisis.
Slater has raised more money, but the Conservative Party hasn’t endorsed either here, so the funds will probably win. Republicans don't see this district, which even Hochul won, as a prime pickup opportunity.
TILT SLATER
SD50- (Oswego, Northern/Eastern Syracuse Suburbs)
This will be a barnstormer, both on Tuesday and in November. In 2022, incumbent Democrat John Mannion won reelection by just ten votes, the closest Senate election in the state. His victory allowed Democrats to hold on to their supermajority. Now Mannion is seeking higher office, running for Congress, and the seat is open. Republicans smell a pickup.
Assemblyman Al Stirpe was considered an early frontrunner, but he withdrew. Two county legislators from different counties are now competing for the Democratic nomination: Onondaga County Legislature Minority Leader Christopher Ryan and Oswego County Legislator Thomas Drumm. Both candidates have the support of their county’s Democratic committees.
Drumm has a slight advantage in money, but Ryan has deep establishment support, including from major labor unions and the Working Families Party. That, plus the turnout in Onondaga County for the congressional race, probably makes him the favorite.
LEAN RYAN
AD 107 (Kinderhook, Bethlehem, Hoosick)
This district, based in the suburbs of Albany, has been a heartbreaker for Democrats. Though it gave Biden 53 percent of the vote in 2020, the Democrats have been unable to win it, coming within 300 votes in 2018.
This year, two Democrats are vying to pick it up: Kent Sopris, Executive Director of the New York Association of Convenience Stores, and Chloe Pierce, a lobbyist. Pierce has the support of several progressive groups, including the Working Families Party, while Sopris has the support of the Democratic committees in each county in the district.
In a standard “establishment vs. insurgent” primary, the winner will take on the incumbent Republican Scott Bendett in a newly drawn district that, after a redraw, includes Democratic-leaning Bethlehem. That general election will be competitive.
Sopris has raised more money and has institutional support, but progressive upstarts tend to do well in the Capitol Region.
TOSSUP
AD 109 (Albany)
Assemblywoman Pat Fahy is vacating this district, which includes the state capital of Albany, to run for the State Senate, and six candidates are running to replace her. Nobody knows who might win.
Four Albany Common Councilmembers, Jack Flynn, Ginnie Farrell, Gabriella Romero, and Owusu Anane, are in the Democratic primary race alongside Albany County Legislators Andrew Joyce and Dustin Reidy.
Romero has the backing of the Working Families Party, but Farrell has spent the most money, followed by Reidy. Those three are likely the frontrunners.
Albany is a relatively progressive place, and Working Families has the ground game in the city so that I will go with Romero for this one. Honestly, no one knows.
TILT ROMERO
AD 137 (Rochester, Gates)
A scion of Rochester politics is facing off against an incumbent in this district, including most of Rochester. William Lightfoot, a Rochester Councilman and Monroe County Legislator, is challenging Assemblyman Demond Meeks.
Meeks has had a target on his back since he narrowly won the primary to succeed longtime Assemblyman David Gantt in 2020. Lightfoot has outraised Meeks and has a strong base of support in Rochester, which will likely make this race competitive. Meeks still has the advantage of incumbency, though.
This is the only contested Assembly Democratic primary in Western New York.
TILT MEEKS
AD 147 (Attica, Southern Buffalo Suburbs)
Incumbent Republican David DiPietro is facing his first competitive primary in this district in the southern Buffalo suburbs since his first election in 2012. He is facing off against Mitchell Martin, a chief at the Eric County Sheriff’s office and former candidate for Erie County GOP chair.
Martin, who worked for State Sen. Pat Gallivan, has outraised the incumbent. Martin has been focusing on his opposition to New York’s gun laws. DiPietro does have the Conservative Party line.
It’s hard to call this one because it’s been flying under the radar, but I think DiPietro, who hasn’t faced a competitive race since 2012, is probably in trouble. Southern Erie County is a pretty right-wing voting base, and incumbents have had a hard time with that type of voting bloc recently.
TILT MARTIN