A Month Out, Is Mamdani Hitting A Wall?

A Dynamic Candidate Alone Can't Fix the Damage NYC Leftists Did to Their Reputation

Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria), backed by progressives in the New York City Mayor race, still hopes to upset former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in next month’s Democratic primary despite trailing badly in polls.

It’s safe to say New York City progressives have largely coalesced around a candidate for mayor this year: Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria), a progressive state legislator from Astoria, Queens. New York City’s primary system - where voters get to rank candidates - gives progressives the option to split their vote, knowing one of them will come out with all the progressive votes in the end. Still, Mamdani seems to have the support of the vast majority of the progressive base and is polling second to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in June’s Democratic primary. Other progressive candidates, including City Comptroller Brad Lander, State Sens. Zellnor Myrie of Brooklyn and Jessica Ramos of Queens, and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, who boasts some establishment support, are also lagging. Rather than try to win their supporters' votes, Mamdani has been asking them to rank him instead of Cuomo so that their votes will be allocated to Mamdani in a final round runoff with the former governor. It has had minimal effect. Though Mamdani has increased his first-round vote share from single digits in early polls to around 25 percent, he still trails Cuomo by at least 20 points in the final round, according to recent polls.

The latest poll, released on Wednesday by Marist, has Mamdani hitting 40 percent in the final round against Cuomo, about four points better than their last poll in early April. However, that’s a nearly impossible gap to close in a month. According to the poll, Cuomo clears the 50 percent he needs to win in the fifth round, winning 53 percent to Mamdani’s 29 percent and City Comptroller Brad Lander, who would finish third, with 18 percent. In the sixth round, Cuomo wins 60 percent to 40 percent for Mamdani after Lander’s voters break only slightly more for Mamdani, despite both running in the progressive lane.

I believe Mamdani will lose, probably big. I’m hesitant to write him off entirely because I’ve seen many political upsets happen in the last 10-20 years, and Cuomo isn’t the most dynamic campaigner. If any establishment figure can blow a 25-point lead, it’s Cuomo. Mamdani’s more light-hearted, engaging campaign style would work in a neutral political environment and overcome Cuomo’s more stiff style. Mamdani’s campaign has been trying to sell a narrative that Cuomo has been hiding from the campaign trial, but he hasn’t. Unlike when he ran for governor, Cuomo is actively campaigning, especially in voter-rich black neighborhoods in the outer boroughs. His campaign is one of a frontrunner trying to protect his lead from a candidate, Mamdani, with enough excitement and attention to build enough momentum to threaten it.

Mamdani’s problem isn’t with him or his campaign. It’s the movement that claims him.